Discussion:
What will happen with the virus from this point to end point
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Stephen DeMay
2020-03-25 18:35:05 UTC
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Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
moviePig
2020-03-25 18:47:23 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Mack A. Damia
2020-03-25 18:54:31 UTC
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Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Disgraceful how Republicans are turning an international crisis of
immense proportions into a political altercation. In November they
will reap the consequences.
moviePig
2020-03-25 20:15:45 UTC
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Post by Mack A. Damia
Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Disgraceful how Republicans are turning an international crisis of
immense proportions into a political altercation. In November they
will reap the consequences.
I hope. But, frankly, I'd wait until it all shakes out to decide who
truly should be strung up. (E.g., wasn't Feinstein dumping stock?)
Mack A. Damia
2020-03-25 21:54:33 UTC
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Post by moviePig
Post by Mack A. Damia
Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Disgraceful how Republicans are turning an international crisis of
immense proportions into a political altercation. In November they
will reap the consequences.
I hope. But, frankly, I'd wait until it all shakes out to decide who
truly should be strung up. (E.g., wasn't Feinstein dumping stock?)
Indeed, and they should all face prosecution if it is true.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-25 19:24:36 UTC
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Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Looks good, tastes bad. Two different starting points : are the people locked down or not. Symptoms of virus will not show for several days so person will spread during that time before testing. Person may feel ill , test get negative then not have another kit. Person may have virus test positive and think if I have it I'll let others share. Too many holes. I read a Yahoo post from someone who was in an Asian country recently living in a hotel. Every person who leaves hotel is tested, when he gets back he is tested ( temperature I guess, maybe more elaborate ), once every night people are awakened in their rooms and tested ...every day. UK approach could do well but maybe not well enough. Could be an all or nothing with nothing in between game and wait 'till it runs its cource as did the bubonic plague and Spanish flu. As for me I've had an infection three times from mouse related problems. All three times I needed two meds to recover . Never had any meds for anything before. So I've gone thru much worse, most other people would have been hospitalized. Not at all concerned about coming down with it as seemingly are Walmart shoppers, maybe one in 10 - 15 wore a mak today and there was not any interest in panic buying...most all Americans are seeing this as a " let's get back to normal situattion, sure there are exceptions but seems only people very cautious by nature have anything but a passing interest in what's going on now...they will only accept being deprived of freedom to choose for so long, unlike a lot of what goes on with government this is personal and it's happening to me. Time to bring back," Where's the beef ? "...500 deaths doesn't make it.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-25 20:38:22 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Looks good, tastes bad. Two different starting points : are the people locked down or not. Symptoms of virus will not show for several days so person will spread during that time before testing. Person may feel ill , test get negative then not have another kit. Person may have virus test positive and think if I have it I'll let others share. Too many holes. I read a Yahoo post from someone who was in an Asian country recently living in a hotel. Every person who leaves hotel is tested, when he gets back he is tested ( temperature I guess, maybe more elaborate ), once every night people are awakened in their rooms and tested ...every day. UK approach could do well but maybe not well enough. Could be an all or nothing with nothing in between game and wait 'till it runs its cource as did the bubonic plague and Spanish flu. As for me I've had an infection three times from mouse related problems. All three times I needed two meds to recover . Never had any meds for anything before. So I've gone thru much worse, most other people would have been hospitalized. Not at all concerned about coming down with it as seemingly are Walmart shoppers, maybe one in 10 - 15 wore a mak today and there was not any interest in panic buying...most all Americans are seeing this as a " let's get back to normal situattion, sure there are exceptions but seems only people very cautious by nature have anything but a passing interest in what's going on now...they will only accept being deprived of freedom to choose for so long, unlike a lot of what goes on with government this is personal and it's happening to me. Time to bring back," Where's the beef ? "...500 deaths doesn't make it.
I'm waiting for the Trump national TV address that concludes , " God Bless America ". which would more appropriately be, God Bless This Mess ". Another point that has had little exposure is that the Spanish Flu came in three waves with each being worse than the last. I'm getting an internal message that the , throw money at it and it will go away " approach may not work this time.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-25 21:12:07 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Post by Stephen DeMay
Post by moviePig
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
The UK's plan to deploy, within days, a cheap, at-home, 15-minute
antibody(?) test could well stop the spread in its tracks ...as people
who *might* be sick might not self-isolate, but those who *are* will.
Looks good, tastes bad. Two different starting points : are the people locked down or not. Symptoms of virus will not show for several days so person will spread during that time before testing. Person may feel ill , test get negative then not have another kit. Person may have virus test positive and think if I have it I'll let others share. Too many holes. I read a Yahoo post from someone who was in an Asian country recently living in a hotel. Every person who leaves hotel is tested, when he gets back he is tested ( temperature I guess, maybe more elaborate ), once every night people are awakened in their rooms and tested ...every day. UK approach could do well but maybe not well enough. Could be an all or nothing with nothing in between game and wait 'till it runs its cource as did the bubonic plague and Spanish flu. As for me I've had an infection three times from mouse related problems. All three times I needed two meds to recover . Never had any meds for anything before. So I've gone thru much worse, most other people would have been hospitalized. Not at all concerned about coming down with it as seemingly are Walmart shoppers, maybe one in 10 - 15 wore a mak today and there was not any interest in panic buying...most all Americans are seeing this as a " let's get back to normal situattion, sure there are exceptions but seems only people very cautious by nature have anything but a passing interest in what's going on now...they will only accept being deprived of freedom to choose for so long, unlike a lot of what goes on with government this is personal and it's happening to me. Time to bring back," Where's the beef ? "...500 deaths doesn't make it.
I'm waiting for the Trump national TV address that concludes , " God Bless America ". which would more appropriately be, God Bless This Mess ". Another point that has had little exposure is that the Spanish Flu came in three waves with each being worse than the last. I'm getting an internal message that the , throw money at it and it will go away " approach may not work this time.
Found my at this time favorite Fake pandemic tid bit : President Trump congratulated the governor of West Virginia ( a rambling Trump clone ) for having a zero virus infection count. A bit later the gov confessed the state had given only 12 virus tests. Beats out the nursing home in Jersey, outside Newark in which every resident who was tested for the virus tested positive, then instead of having them stay put shipped out everybody to another NH which displaced the in place residents.That information is tempered somewhat by the reality that nobody ever gets better and leaves a NH anyway. Also saw that Some NH residents are only allowed robot visitors, that's a monitor on a stick.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-26 00:43:35 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
My recomendation that Manhattan be quaranteened has been ignored and mucho infected people have no doubt been unleashed to other parts of the country. Infection ate in NYC is so much higher than anywhere else it's ga ga land. All the Amusement about China's build 'em and tear 'em down hospitals will be sad stuff now as NY state is projected to need so many hospital beds it's coo coo crazy. NYC will cause the number of infected to vastly increase throughout the country which will cause heartland Manhattan haters to view the apple the way Americans viewed ww2 Japs. How 'bout them spaghetti benders ? Either too much pasta in the diet or the pope's Mojo is cursed. Fortunatey the US rate will never get so high that home quaranteen will never be a possibility, could not work anyway . The actual numbers of infected only show positive results from people tested...and that's only 80,000 in NY state. So the stats ironically are more bogus than the Chins who tested far more thoroughly. I'll not take Manhattan. Probably nearly everyone in the borough will have the disease and a lot of them are leaving town. Not an end of the world scenario but stranger than fiction. Civil disobedience of varying kinds will pop up here and there but the low death rate will not generate riots but mucho political hop scotch.
moviePig
2020-03-26 02:18:10 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
My recomendation that Manhattan be quaranteened has been ignored and mucho infected people have no doubt been unleashed to other parts of the country. Infection ate in NYC is so much higher than anywhere else it's ga ga land. All the Amusement about China's build 'em and tear 'em down hospitals will be sad stuff now as NY state is projected to need so many hospital beds it's coo coo crazy. NYC will cause the number of infected to vastly increase throughout the country which will cause heartland Manhattan haters to view the apple the way Americans viewed ww2 Japs. How 'bout them spaghetti benders ? Either too much pasta in the diet or the pope's Mojo is cursed. Fortunatey the US rate will never get so high that home quaranteen will never be a possibility, could not work anyway . The actual numbers of infected only show positive results from people tested...and that's only 80,000 in NY state. So the stats ironically are more bogus than the Chins who tested far more thoroughly. I'll not take Manhattan. Probably nearly everyone in the borough will have the disease and a lot of them are leaving town. Not an end of the world scenario but stranger than fiction. Civil disobedience of varying kinds will pop up here and there but the low death rate will not generate riots but mucho political hop scotch.
There will be infected escapees, but they'll general
william ahearn
2020-03-26 02:39:54 UTC
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There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
moviePig
2020-03-26 02:57:51 UTC
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There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-26 03:11:26 UTC
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Post by moviePig
There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
and if Trump were not a louse he might be a good guy. It is what it is. The questions are why does Italy have an astronomical death rate and Germany about zero. Pasta v. Kraut no doubt. The Don may show up dowin' wurst und kraut as a role model for the country. Seems like just a few days ago when Bloomburg went to eat in a restaurant in Chinatown as a show of solidarity. How things have changed.
william ahearn
2020-03-26 03:25:42 UTC
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Post by moviePig
There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
Really? It might take time but the pandemic will continue in venues that don't have the resources to deal with it.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-26 13:03:29 UTC
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Post by william ahearn
Post by moviePig
There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
Really? It might take time but the pandemic will continue in venues that don't have the resources to deal with it.
Will burn itself out within a year, Check Spanisj flu history.
moviePig
2020-03-26 13:22:58 UTC
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Post by william ahearn
Post by moviePig
There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
Really? It might take time but the pandemic will continue in venues that don't have the resources to deal with it.
My opinion is worth what you're paying for it, but... afaik *eventual*
spread isn't the issue of the moment. Rather, it's about keeping it as
*slow* as possible, so peak medical needs never exceed capacity.
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-26 14:32:33 UTC
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Post by moviePig
Post by william ahearn
Post by moviePig
There will be infected escapees, but they'll generally be escaping to
less infectious environments.
Huh?
I'm guessing that the high new-case rate in NYC right now is a function
of density. E.g., if those millions of people were suddenly spread out
across 100 times the acreage, it'd drop dramatically.
Really? It might take time but the pandemic will continue in venues that don't have the resources to deal with it.
My opinion is worth what you're paying for it, but... afaik *eventual*
spread isn't the issue of the moment. Rather, it's about keeping it as
*slow* as possible, so peak medical needs never exceed capacity.
Thousand dead or tens of thousands dead is as nothing compared to a world wide depression or a real pandemic. Dow is up big again today. The smart money thinks the problem can be fixed by keeping people apart for awhile. Probably not just slowing it down ( not in Manhattan ) for now. Street is smart but will in coming weeks will realize that this is a biological problem not fixable by moderate efforts. When it discovers the real infection rates , not just those tested, and infections priral upwards quickly when people return to work it will head to 15,000 and hunker down. Again this is not end of the world, just a 2020 new normal. Media can go on about hospital beds, really thisis about people getting back to work . In the areas that now show little activity it will take time but this is not a race to stop it before a certain date, it's open ended but there will be parts of America with much less than in New York and tho I don't see any real attempt for people in some regions to flee to others as occured in Italy some areas will stop new people from entering their space. . Given that media has missed the real center of what's going on now...that Manhattan is the big problem, I would not expect news of any kind to parse out what pieces are in place and what will be the result. My rethinking of Manhattan yesterday has changed my outlook from it will be much calmed down in 5 weeks to a new normal outlook. In any event if the whole business is looked at from a how many people will die POV it's not that important say in comparison to a terrorist nuvlear attack on Manhattan or the effects of one super hurricane on the East Coast. Much worse things are on the horizon and some of them in my lifetime.. American think WW2 was a big deal ...compare theeffects on the US to what happened in Europe and the USSR, that's the difference between this and other problems headed this way. It's big and unusual but not clock stopping, more something to watch unfold on the net. First up back to work and shut Manhattan , afterweards just ride it out, people die, what's new about that ?
g***@gmail.com
2020-03-26 05:40:25 UTC
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Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Stephen DeMay
2020-03-26 14:08:31 UTC
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Post by g***@gmail.com
Post by Stephen DeMay
Currently about ten states have no work , no recreation lockouts. THe public will stomach this for maybe two three more weeks and then look around and say, " fuck this ! " and demand that government let things go back to normal. The mantra can be, " do you know anyone who has, much less died from the Chin V ? ".
Most states that have the lockdown have Democratic governors, so bullshit from politicos will result in backlash at the polls, this is an election year.
Lockdowns will end sooner than enticipated , the virus will quickly spread again as testing everyone multiple times and people not allowed to go grocery shopping ain't gonna happen.
Peoplewill accept getting sick rather than being unemployed and bored, politicians will accept it knowing their heads will roll if they don't.
Virus will burn itself out in 6 - 9 months, economic hit will be moderate. The Street knows this, Dow is booming, Trump will be laughing his ass off as ire will turn to Democrats. Will show that the future can never be predicted.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Only things you need to know about the future : Industry cannot be shut down for anything like a year...it would cause a depression. Virus cannot be eliminated short term with anything short of quarantine for everybody...could not happen. Manhattan infection and reinfection rate will mean everyone living in Manhattan will get sick. Manhattan Island, whatever businesses reopen long term has to be quarantined, commuters from Jersey CANNOT be allowed to enter the city, death rate will be well under 1 %, total infection in US could be over 100 million but few will die, businesses both retail and industrial will reopen soon with many sick people in and out of work, virus will burn itself out before end of year, biggest danger is meds used to treat infections could cause mutation into more deadly form which, unless cure is quickly developed will wipe out large percentage of world/s population, food supplies cannot be obtained without grocery stores, for several months the new normal will be business as usual except about 10 % of population a will be sick at any one time, people will accept the new normal, no panic buying no hand wringing ,,,Manhattan has to be quarantined NOW or the prospects will be even worse, don't want Jersey to be like NYC, Jersey governor probably cannot stop commuters going into Manhattan unless Martial law is declared, don't know if that's a state or Federal power.
Mostly it will be a new normal for the year unless a vaccine that works and does not cause mutations is developed. People will be in and out of Jobs , self - testing just won't work for the reasons I've given in another post.
Two things are paramount to keep in focus : this is just a flu and not anything like the deadly Spanish flu and Manhattan is a special problem,MANHATTAN MUST BE ISOLATED. AS for myself I have a respirator so I won't get it or if I do I'll ride it out; a lot of people who have had the virus were barely ill from what I've read. I'd be more concerned with restrictions on food than getting ill. Have stockpiled 4,000 pounds of animal products. The entire general outlook as to what is likely to happen from now on is fucked, truth is people are going to get sick, some will die, the ones who do were sickly to begin with so in several months time when a lot more medical equipment is on line won't make much difference in the number of dead anyway. This is not China. The Street is trying to figure how many people will be out of the work force and for how long, If Manhattan is not quarantined Dow will go to 10,000 if it is and had better happen soon, will probably see things as business not as usual and not go lower than 15,000. The phrase that should be kept in mind at this time is " ride it out and keep dem Nu Yawkers penned up. Works for me...btw no baseball this year
When the World Trade Center buildings were demolished lowerManhattan was closed off for two weeks and traffic was not allowed in the area for months...people adjusted. As long as people can get food, can get back to work and don't die they'll deal with it. Strange situation always think of deadly disease/plague's effect on population this is kinda goofy. A few hundreds of thousands of people ( at most ) dying in would with billions of people in it is barely news to me at all...40,000 people die each year in highway fatalities and apparently about 50,000 plus in the flu season. For some reason Spanish flu did get real bad , not because it was " handled " well. Bring in all the medical supplies and rich people give aways you can but genie is out of the battle...but it's a new normal for the rest of the year. Whatever government does will make little difference, only possibly to slow the spread but failure to close Manhattan would be like the government not insuring bank depositsin the 30's, putting fuel on the fire. From my perspective only food panic buying would be a real problem. TA Trump address to the nation might be worth a watch but it would not contain as much meaningful information as in in this post. Enjoy the new normal, or not.
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